In a significant and unprecedented legal development concerning the Syrian issue, the French decision to issue an arrest warrant is poised to have far-reaching effects both within and beyond French borders. France announced on 15th November 2023 its decision to issue an arrest warrant against Bashar al-Assad, his brother Maher, and high-ranking officers, Ghassan Abbas and Bassam al-Hassan. This action comes in the context of charges related to war crimes against civilians, specifically chemical attacks that occurred in Syria in 2013 in the Ghouta region, resulting in the deaths of thousands of civilians. Let’s take a closer look at the expected impacts and potential implications of this decision.
Impacts on the International Level:
- Enhancing International Cooperation: This measure may stimulate international cooperation in prosecuting individuals accused of committing war crimes, reinforcing international justice and redirecting the Syrian case to its rightful path after numerous attempts to legitimize the Assad regime, especially by countries attempting to normalize relations with the criminal regime. Some may perceive this step as part of the power balance in Syria, and that this decision is symbolic, carrying significant moral and political gains for the Syrian revolution, which we will outline.
- Escalation of International Pressure: The decision could increase international pressure on the Syrian regime, urging the international community to take stricter measures to address severe violations. This may encourage other nations to undertake similar unprecedented global actions.
Impacts on the Domestic Situation in Syria:
- Shift in Domestic Positions: The decision could be a turning point in the orientation of the internal opposition, viewed by many as a positive impetus to act against the regime.
- Contribution to Economic Collapse: The decision is expected to cause negative economic repercussions and a complete collapse of the Syrian currency, exacerbating the economic challenges faced by the crumbling regime. It may lead to a new uprising in their controlled areas, similar to those that occurred in Sweida.
Impact on the Regional Role:
The decision may encourage neighboring countries to support the Syrian opposition, potentially reshaping the regional power dynamics to what they were in 2012, renewing hope and boosting morale.
In conclusion, the decision by the French investigative judges to issue arrest warrants against Bashar al-Assad, Maher al-Assad, and their two associates, Ghassan Abbas and Bassam al-Hassan, is a just redress for the Syrian revolution that has long stood alone on the global political stage.
In summary, France’s decision is pivotal in the Syrian context, expected to have broad effects on the international stage and open the door to various scenarios that may lead to a complete collapse of the Syrian regime.
